St. Louis, and much of the Midwest, is cold right now. Really cold. With six to twelve inches of snow falling across the area today and below zero temperatures expected tomorrow, I figured it was a perfect time to write about Cardinals’ flame-throwing closer, Trevor Rosenthal.
Have you ever taken the time to look at the raw data of his pitching in 2013? I glanced at it in a previous blog post, but that was mid-season when he was still the set-up man, so let’s see how he progressed as the season went along.
Let’s face it. With the way the weather is outside, our minds are craving baseball. However, unfortunately, it is still over a month away till Spring Training. I will start by taking a look at Rosenthal’s phenomenal outing on October 12th in Game 2 of the NLCS against the Los Angeles Dodgers and then move on to his numbers from the season as a whole.
Game 2 of the NLCS:
Yasiel Puig At-Bat: Strikeout on 7 straight fastballs (pitch locations below)
Pitch 1: 97.4 MPH fastball
Pitch 2: 98.2 MPH fastball
Pitch 3: 98.8 MPH fastball
Pitch 4: 99.6 MPH fastball
Pitch 5: 99.3 MPH fastball
Pitch 6: 97.8 MPH fastball
Pitch 7: 98.6 MPH fastball
Average: 98.5 MPH
This at-bat consisted of seven straight fastballs which can be damning to some pitchers. However, with pitches ranging from 97.4 MPH to 99.6 MPH, Rosenthal can afford throwing this many in a row, as long as he locates them well. Throughout much of the regular season and especially the playoffs, hitters knew what to expect from Rosenthal–a fastball. To combat this, Rosenthal did exactly what I just noted, changing location consistently–up-down-in-out–throughout the Puig at-bat.
When the seventh pitch rolled around, Puig had a pretty good idea it was going to be a fastball, but he had no clue on its location–leading to a good ole backwards K. Puig had a .315 batting average and a .519 slugging percentage against fastballs this season, but those most definitely weren’t Rosenthal-like fastballs.
Juan Uribe At-Bat: Strikeout on 4 straight fastballs (pitch locations below)
Pitch 1: 99.8 MPH fastball
Pitch 2: 99.0 MPH fastball
Pitch 3: 99.1 MPH fastball
Pitch 4: 99.4 MPH fastball
Average: 99.3 MPH
An average of 99.3 MPH? That’s not even fair. Two of the four pitches (pitches 3 and 4 of the at-bat) resulted in whiffs. Uribe was a .315 hitter against fastballs in 2013, but as I noted, a Rosenthal fastball is in a whole different class–an elite class shared by very few pitchers in the league.
Andre Ethier At-Bat: Strikeout on 3 fastballs (pitch locations below)
Pitch 1: 98.5 MPH fastball
Pitch 2: 101.2 MPH fastball
Pitch 3: 98.9 MPH fastball
Average: 99.5 MPH
As if the 99.5 MPH average wasn’t enough, Rosenthal changed Ethier’s eye-level on all three pitches–the first pitch being down in the zone, second one up in the zone, and then finished him off with one near the middle of the zone. Ethier swung and missed on all three, and if I remember correctly, he looked pretty foolish on each one. With pitch number two coming in at 101.2 MPH, I wouldn’t be surprised if that was his fastest all season.
2013 As a Whole:
As you can see in the table to the right, Rosenthal’s velocity was pretty consistent all season. If anything, he ramped it up a little bit as the season went along. The 10 MPH difference between his fastball and changeup will be devastating for years to come, especially as he gains confidence in his secondary pitches.
I know Rosenthal has made it clear he wants a shot in the starting rotation. Mike Matheny and Derek Lilliquist just may give him the opportunity this spring. However, I legitimately believe he will go down as one of the best in the game if he stays in the closer role and is able to stay healthy. He is only 23 years old. His fastball is already elite. We all know this. However, his secondary pitches, especially his changeup, have also shown flashes of brilliance as well. With Rosenthal’s work ethic, I expect him to have these pitches fine-tuned and ready to go next season.
Sorry, Major League hitters. You are in for quite the treat for years to come.
Follow Rosenthal on Twitter: @TrevRosenthal
Stay warm, my friends.
As usual, all pitching data was received from BrooksBaseball.net. If this is of interest to you, check the site out for yourself. If you have any questions, feel free to ask!